Snowfall Forecasts & Analysis: Inches To Expect - [Updated]
Is winter's icy grip tightening its hold? Prepare yourself, because the weather patterns are painting a picture of substantial snowfall across various regions, potentially disrupting daily life and reshaping landscapes.
The whispers of winter's arrival have turned into a forecast that demands attention. Across the country, communities are bracing for the possibility of significant snowfall, with predictions varying depending on the specific location and the evolving dynamics of the weather systems. Forecasters are meticulously monitoring the conditions, issuing warnings and alerts to ensure public safety and preparedness.
The National Weather Service (NWS) plays a crucial role in these forecasts. They issue winter storm warnings when substantial snowfall is anticipated, setting thresholds for heavy snow alerts. These alerts typically come into effect when the snowfall rate is expected to reach 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 inches in 24 hours. The NWS provides detailed information about expected snow totals, potential impacts, and guidance for individuals and communities to navigate the challenges posed by winter storms.
The specifics of the snowfall predictions vary widely. Some areas are looking at a dusting, while others are bracing for inches, even feet, of snow. The forecast from the Fox 5 weather team, for example, projects anywhere from an additional two inches to nearly six additional inches of snow depending on the area. In Topeka, Kansas, residents are anticipating 5 to 8 inches of snow between Monday evening and Tuesday evening. The areas around New York City are expected to see 2 to 5 inches, with the Hudson Valley potentially receiving up to 8 inches. Forecasters in southeast Missouri have issued a winter storm warning for many counties.
The winter storm forecast for the region is particularly important, and the NWS had expected between 5 and 8 inches of snow for the region, which would make it the biggest snowstorm of the season so far. Salisbury is expected to see an additional 5.8 inches.
As a point of reference, the Providence area has had only 8.1 inches of snow so far from December through Thursday, with the most, 2 inches, falling on January 19, according to weather service records. The snow comes as northeastern Illinois faces a major snow deficit, with only 10 inches of snow so far this season, Roman said. "We should be around 25 inches at this time," Roman said, of how.
The calculated data is based on information from the National Weather Service that indicates the average snowfall is in a ratio of 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of equivalent rainfall. More densely packed and wet snow is in the ratio of 8 inches of snow to 1 inch of equivalent rainfall, and more powdery snow is about 14 to 1 ratio. For instance, for 12 inches of snowfall at a temperature of 16F, all you need to do is divide the amount of snowfall by the ratio of the snow.
To provide some local specifics, weather reports indicate areas in close proximity to Rockville witnessed 8.7 inches of snow, Avon saw 8.6 inches, and Monrovia received 8.5 inches. The forecasts also highlight that snow totals around New York City are expected to be 2 to 5 inches, with snow totals near 8 inches in the Hudson Valley. Forecasters are predicting 5 to 8 inches of snow in Cape Girardeau, although a forecast Monday afternoon showed some areas of North Texas getting between 2 and 5 inches of snow, with isolated areas further west possibly getting up to 8 inches of accumulation during the storm.
The determination of the water equivalent of the snow is crucial for hydrologic models and water resource management. The observer shall estimate the water equivalent to the nearest 0.01 inch. This allows for precise measurement of the amount of water that will be released when the snow melts, which is essential for predicting runoff, streamflow, and potential flooding. The data are then utilized by various government agencies, research organizations, and individuals involved in water management and environmental protection.
The phenomenon of snow banding can significantly affect snowfall totals. When snow bands form, they can concentrate snowfall in specific areas, leading to substantially higher accumulations in some locations compared to others. On the higher end, 5 to 8 inches of snow is possible for most of the region if there is snow banding and the wintry mix is limited. If the storm trends north or the wintry mix pushes inland quickly, the resulting snowfall could vary significantly.
The snow depth is the total depth of snow on the ground, reported to the nearest whole inch. Thus, the daily snowfall is 7.0 inches (measured to the nearest tenth of an inch) (17.8 cm), while the snow depth at observation is rounded up from 2.6 inches (6.6 cm) to 3 inches (7.6 cm). It is taken as soon as snow has stopped falling if possible and no more than 4 times a day. This is the water content of the newly fallen snow.
The National Weather Service will usually issue heavy snow alerts when the snowfall rate is expected to be 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 inches in 24 hours.
A conversion chart is also essential to understanding the water equivalent of the snowfall, which converts snowfall depths and amounts to the water equivalent of the snow. If you wonder how much water you would be able to get from a bucketful of snow, all you need are some simple calculations in the same manner as we did to calculate inches of rain to snow.
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Weather Events | Winter Storms, Blizzard Conditions, Historic Snowfall, Ice Accumulation |
| Geographic Regions Affected | Northeastern Illinois, Providence Area, Topeka (Kansas), New York City, Hudson Valley, Cape Girardeau, North Texas, Southeast Missouri |
| Expected Snowfall Amounts | 2 to 8 inches, with variations depending on location and weather patterns |
| Timing | Ongoing through February 2025, with specific dates for warnings and updates |
| Key Agencies/Organizations | National Weather Service (NWS), Fox 5 Weather Team |
| Significant Dates | January 19 (Providence snowfall), February 7, 2025 (publication date), February 8, 2025 (updated date), 9 a.m. on the 19th |
| Specific Locations with Snowfall Amounts | Rockville (8.7 inches), Avon (8.6 inches), Monrovia (8.5 inches) |
| Potential Hazards | Blizzard conditions, hazardous travel conditions, disruptions to daily life |
| Conversion Ratios | Average: 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rainfall. Densely packed wet snow: 8 inches of snow to 1 inch of rainfall. Powdery snow: 14 to 1. |
| Factors Influencing Snowfall | Snow banding, wintry mix, atmospheric rivers |
| Reference | National Weather Service Official Website |
This first winter storm of 2025 could bring blizzard conditions, historic snow, and ice.
In a particularly dramatic case, snow fell at a rate of about 10 inches per hour in Thompson Pass, Alaska, in 2017. This extreme rate of snowfall highlights the power of atmospheric rivers, which can pump massive amounts of moisture into a region, leading to extraordinary snowfall accumulations.
